Tuesday, October 14, 2008

Rise and Fall of Sensex, and the 'analysts' in between


Circa 2008. January 10.

The world is falling flat at India's toes. Atleast this is what our great analysts on CNBC are talking. Sensex is floating above 20k (yes, that 'k' actually means thousand) and each jaggu, maggu and mallu (india's tom dick n harrys) are clamoring to put their new year salaries into the Grandest Circus on earth - the Indian Stock Market. Sensex touches 21000, and next target is 30000, 'announces' CNBC.

Same year. January 18.

Its hardly been a week that every warren buffet of the world wanted to invest in India...or so said our Anal-ysts! And the circus has played its trick...its magician jokers turned the tables and suddenly every new entrant in the circus has lost his shirt (or pants too...depending on the stock). Sensex closes at 19000. And this is just the beginning. Analysts predict a bounce back to atleast 25k in near term. Don't panic, hold your positions guys. What will FIIs earn if you too start selling, huh!

Same year. March 17.

2 months since the inevitable bounce-back was predicted, and the clouds just get gloomier. Sensex is 14.8k. Blame the 'global cues'...says - who else but- CNBC!

The story goes on till today, Oct 14, when we are floating in the range of 10-11k. And suddenly analysts have started to double check their script before reading it out on tv, coz maybe we are still 2 days away from bottom, and it might be too early to predict bounce back till 20k. Wait till Oct 16! :)

All this reminds me of an adage a read somewhere...

"...There are 2 golden rules of stock market...

Rule no. 1: For every analysis, there is equal and opposite analysis.

Rule no. 2: Both are wrong

..."

Enjoy trading. Its humor, if nothing else.

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